GemThoughts

A couple of years ago I proposed that everything De Beers was doing pointed to the end of the sight process.  First off, they offered "additional" goods to sightholders, then proposed to sell off excess goods to non-sightholders. They quickly backed off from that when, undoubtedly,  sightholders saw their price and marketing edge dented and squawked loudly.  Also, everyone knew by then that production was going to decline and fall behind demand.  BHP was already demonstrating that auctions were producing solidly better prices - though the quantities were not that great.  Moreover, De Beers was being put into a tighter and tighter box by the producing countries, notably Botswana, South Africa and Namibia.  Russia was already fated not to be a supplier to De Beers.  People in the trade pooh-poohed the idea, saying that De Beers would always want to distribute through a small number of clients; would not give up the power of dictating the content in the...

The array of shows in Las Vegas are over, and we are all recovering.  The shows were busy--very busy--and many vendors had excellent results, the best since before the downturn.  Nevertheless, the mood was a mix of relief, excitement and more than a touch of worry.  Why worry?  Well, we are all still staring at a stumbling economy, one that has shown signs of stalling, which scares everyone.  A major supplier has seen a double-digit increase in sales, and it appears to them that consumers are buying again, even if it is cautiously.  But they are still not sanguine about the months to come.  Part of the energy we saw might be due to retailers needing goods after working down their inventory levels.  Part may be because they have made good money buying gold and stone jewelry off the street.  One vendor said that every retailer they met with reported that buying from the public has been a big boon. Another open question is whether the public w...